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Analysis, deep dives and methodological notes on Italian electoral data.
Comparing raw pollster averages is wrong when support is moving. Strip out the timing effect and the spread between the highest and lowest house on Fratelli d'Italia is still 3 points.
We digested 7,958 polls from Italy's official polling registry. One in five is flagged as anomalous — and the cause is not what it looks like. What the archive holds, what it doesn't, and what we fix before showing it.
Across the 7,958 polls just harvested from the official registry, the centre-right coalition falls from 47.2% to 40.7% between early 2025 and summer 2026. The centre-left gains nothing: the gap closes because one side drops.
A look at the European election results in Italy: turnout, vote shifts and regional trends.